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Preface xi
Entering a New World 3
A Massive Market Failure 6
Environment and Civilization 9
China: Why the Existing Economic Model Will Fail 13
Mounting Stresses, Failing States 14
A Civilizational Tipping Point 18
Plan B-A Plan of Hope 20
A Civilization in Trouble
Deteriorating Oil and Food Security 27
The Coming Decline of Oil 29
The Oil Intensity of Food 34
The Changing Food Prospect 36
Cars and People Compete for Crops 38
The World Beyond Peak Oil 42
Food Insecurity and Failing States 45
Rising Temperatures and Rising Seas 48
Rising Temperature and Its Effects 49
The Crop Yield Effect 51
Reservoirs in the Sky 53
Melting Ice and Rising Seas 56
More-Destructive Storms 61
Cutting Carbon 80 Percent by 2020 64
Emerging Water Shortages 68
Water Tables Falling 69
Rivers Running Dry 75
Lakes Disappearing 77
Farmers Losing to Cities 78
ScarcityCrossing National Borders 81
Water Scarcity Yields Political Stresses 82
Natural Systems Under Stress 85
Shrinking Forests: The Many Costs 86
Losing Soil 90
From Grassland to Desert 93
Advancing Deserts 94
Collapsing Fisheries 97
Disappearing Plants and Animals 101
Early Signs of Decline 106
Our Socially Divided World 107
Health Challenge Growing 110
Throwaway Economy in Trouble 115
Population and Resource Conflicts 117
Environmental Refugees on the Rise 121
Mounting Stresses, Failing States 123
The Response-Plan B
Eradicating Poverty, Stabilizing Population 131
Universal Basic Education 133
Stabilizing Population 136
Better Health for All 140
Curbing the HIV Epidemic 144
Reducing Farm Subsidies and Debt 146
A Poverty Eradication Budget 149
Restoring the Earth 152
Protecting and Restoring Forests 153
Conserving and Rebuilding Soils 158
Regenerating Fisheries 162
Protecting Plant and Animal Diversity 164
Planting Trees to Sequester Carbon 165
The Earth Restoration Budget 169
Feeding Eight Billion Well 175
Rethinking Land Productivity 176
Raising Water Productivity 179
Producing Protein More Efficiently 183
Moving Down the Food Chain 188
Action on Many Fronts 189
Designing Cities for People 192
The Ecology of Cities 194
Redesigning Urban Transport 196
Reducing Urban Water Use 202
Farming in the City 205
Upgrading Squatter Settlements 208
Cities for People 209
Raising Energy Efficiency 213
Banning the Bulb 215
Energy-Efficient Appliances 218
More-Efficient Buildings 221
Restructuring the Transport System 225
A New Materials Economy 228
The Energy Savings Potential 235
Turning to Renewable Energy 237
Harnessing the Wind 239
Wind-Powered Plug-in Hybrid Cars 243
Solar Cells and Collectors 246
Energy from the Earth 252
Plant-Based Sources of Energy 255
River, Tidal, and Wave Power 258
The World Energy Economy of 2020 259
An Exciting New Option
The Great Mobilization 265
Shifting Taxes and Subsidies 267
Summing Up Climate Stabilization Measures 273
A Response to Failing States 276
A Wartime Mobilization 279
Mobilizing to Save Civilization 280
What You and I Can Do 285
Notes 289
Index 373
Acknowledgments 393
About the Author 399
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