Terrorism, Asymmetric Warfare, and Weapons of Mass Destruction: Defending the U.S. Homeland Book

	Acknowledgments	xi
Chapter 1	The Changing Face of Asymmetric Warfare and Terrorism	1
	The Growing Focus on Terrorism	7
	Terrorism versus Asymmetric Warfare	8
Chapter 2	Risk Assessment: Planning for "Non-patterns" and Potential Risk	11
	Looking Beyond Emotional Definitions of Terrorism	11
	Rethinking the Mid- and Long-term Risk of Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear (CBRN) Attack	13
	Patterns and Non-patterns in the Number of Attacks	16
	Casualties versus Incidents: The Lack of Correlation	16
	U.S. and American Casualties versus International Casualties	20
	Considering the Threat from State and Non-state Actors	25
	States, "Terrorists," and Acts of War	25
	Planning for Major Attacks and Asymmetric Warfare by State Actors	31
	The Threat of "Proxies" and "Networks"	32
	Dealing with Nuance and Complex Motives	32
	Consideration of the Full Spectrum of Possible Types and Methods of Attack: The Need to Consider "Worst Cases"	33
	Making Offense, Deterrence, Denial, Defense, and Retaliation Part of Homeland Defense	34
	Linking Homeland Defense to Counterproliferation	36
Chapter 3	Threat Prioritization: Seeking to Identify Current and Future Threats	39
	Potential State Actors	39
	A Department of State Assessment of State Threats	40
	A Department of Defense Assessment of Threats from Foreign States	45
	The Probable Lack of Well-Defined Strategic Warning of a Threat from State Actors and Unpredictable Behavior in a Crisis	49
	Foreign Terrorists and Extremists	51
	Continuing Threats and Counterterrorist Action	54
	Major Foreign Terrorist Groups and Extremists	57
	Threats from Foreign Students and Immigrants	74
	Domestic Terrorists and Extremists	76
	The Implications of Past Terrorist Attacks	80
	Probability versus Probability Theory	85
Chapter 4	Types of Attack: Determining Future Methods of Attack and the Needed Response	89
	Illustrative Attack Scenarios	92
	"Conventional" Means of Attack	96
	Weapons of Mass Destruction	97
	Chemical Weapons As Means of Attack	101
	The Impact and Variety of Possible Chemical Weapons	108
	The probable Lethality and Effectiveness of Chemical Attacks	109
	Methods of Delivery	117
	Detection and Interception	118
	Acquiring Chemical Weapons	119
	The Impact of Technological Change	122
	The Aum Shinrikyo Case Study	122
	Political and Psychological Effects	124
	The Problem of Response	125
	Biological Weapons As Means of Attack	128
	Categorizing the Biological Threat	135
	Case Studies: Iraq and Russia	142
	State Actor, Proxy, and Terrorist/Extremist Incidents to Date	147
	The Yugoslav Smallpox Incident	150
	Cases in the United States	150
	The Lethality and Effectiveness of Current Biological Weapons	151
	Means of Delivery	160
	Manufacturing Biological Weapons	161
	Changes in Technology and the Difficulty of Manufacture	166
	The Growing Lethality of Biological Weapons and Growing Ease of Manufacture	168
	New Types of Biological Weapons	169
	Changes in Disease: Piggybacking on the Threat from Nature	170
	Agricultural and Ecological Attacks	174
	The Problem of Response	177
	Radiological Weapons As Means of Attack	194
	The Practical Chances of Using Radiological Weapons	195
	The Practical Risks and Effects of Using Radiological Weapons	196
	Nuclear Weapons As Means of Attack	199
	Lethality and Effectiveness	207
	Is There a Threat from State Actors, Proxies, Terrorists, and Extremists? The Problem of Getting the Weapon	216
	The Problem of Delivery	222
	Dealing with the Risk and Impact of Nuclear Attacks	222
Chapter 5	Threat Assessment and Prioritization: Identifying Threats	237
	Dr. Pangloss versus Chicken Little and the Boy Who Cried Wolf	238
	The Problem of Detection, Warning, and Response	239
	Living with Complexity and Uncertainty: A Flexible and Evolutionary Approach	239
	The "Morning After," Multiple Attacks; The "Morning After" and the "Learning Curve Effect"	242
Chapter 6	U.S. Government Efforts to Create a Homeland Defense Capability	245
	Key Presidential Decision Directives and Legislation Affecting the Federal Response	247
	Ongoing Changes in the Structure of the Federal Effort	249
	The Growth of the Federal Effort	250
	The FY2000 Program	251
	The FY2001 Program	253
	The Details of the Federal Effort	254
	The Changing Patterns in Federal Spending	255
	Planning and Programming the Overall Federal Effort	261
	Antiterrorism, Counterterrorism, and Core Spending	264
	Spending on Preparedness for Attacks Using Weapons of Mass Destruction	269
Chapter 7	Federal Efforts by Department and Agency	275
	Department of Agriculture	276
	National Animal Health Emergency Program	276
	Central Intelligence Agency	277
	Department of Commerce	289
	Department of Defense	289
	Analyzing the Role of the DOD	291
	The Size of the Current DOD Effort	295
	Dedicated FY2001 DOD Expenditures for CBRN/WMD Homeland Defense	297
	Key DOD Activities	300
	Antiterrorism and Force Protection	303
	Counterterrorism	306
	Terrorism Consequence Management	307
	Specialized DOD Teams and Units for Defense and Response	318
	Research and Development	323
	Intelligence	324
	Counterforce Capability against an Adversary's Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Infrastructures	324
	The Cooperative Threat Reduction Program	327
	Conclusions	328
	Department of Energy	329
	Office of Nonproliferation and National Security	329
	Office of Emergency Management	330
	Office of Defense Programs	330
	Office of Emergency Response	330
	Nuclear Emergency Search Team	330
	Radiological Assistance Program	330
	The Nuclear Safeguards, Security, and Emergency Operations Program	331
	Research and Development	331
	Environmental Protection Agency	331
	Office of Solid Waste and Emergency Response	332
	On-Scene Coordinator	332
	Federal Emergency Management Agency	332
	Response and Recovery Directorate	333
	Preparedness, Training, and Exercises Directorate	333
	U.S. Fire Administration	334
	National Fire Academy and Emergency Management Institute	334
	General Services Administration	336
	Department of Health and Human Services	336
	Metropolitan Medical Response Systems	337
	National Pharmaceutical Stockpile Program	339
	Public Health Surveillance System for WMD	340
	Research and Development	341
	Department of the Interior	341
	Department of Justice and Federal Bureau of Investigation	341
	National Domestic Preparedness Office	345
	Office for State and Local Domestic Preparedness Support	350
	National Domestic Preparedness Consortium	355
	Awareness of National Security Issues and Response Program	356
	National Institute of Justice	357
	National Security Community	358
	Nuclear Regulatory Commission	358
	Department of State	358
	Embassy Protection	358
	Office of the Coordinator for Counterterrorism	360
	Bureau of Consular Affairs	362
	Bureau of Diplomatic Security	362
	Anti-Terrorism Assistance Program	362
	Export Controls and Homeland Defense	363
	Arms Control and Homeland Defense	363
	Department of Transportation	364
	Department of Treasury	364
	Department of Veterans Affairs	366
	Looking Beyond September 2001	367
Chapter 8	Federal, State, and Local Cooperation	373
	Planning for Low- to Mid-Level Terrorism	374
	West Nile Outbreak	375
	The Lessons from "Jointness"	377
Chapter 9	How Other Nations Deal with These Threats	381
	Leadership and Management	383
	Policies and Strategies	384
	Claimed Reliance on Criminal Prosecution As the Major Response and Deterrent	385
	Oversight, Planning, Programming, and Budgeting	386
	Resource Allocations Are Targeted at Likely Threats, Not Vulnerabilities: Limited Concern with WMD Threats	387
	Learning from Foreign Countries	388
Chapter 10	Lessons from Recent Major Commissions on Terrorism	391
	The Gilmore, Bremer, and Hart-Rudman Commissions	391
	Areas Where the Commissions Made Similar Recommendations	394
	Gilmore and Bremer Commissions: Executive Coordination and Management	394
	Gilmore and Bremer Commissions: Congressional Oversight	397
	Gilmore and Bremer Commissions: Intelligence Gathering and Sharing	398
	Gilmore and Bremer Commissions: Clarify Authority, Command, and Control	399
	Bremer and Hart-Rudman Commissions: Biological Pathogens, International Consensus against Terrorism, and Strengthening of Public Health Systems	402
	Bremer and Hart-Rudman Commissions: Strengthening the International Consensus against Terrorism and the International Convention for the Suppression of the Financing of Terrorism	403
	Areas Where the Commissions Made Different Recommendations	403
	Gilmore Commission: Threat Assessments	404
	Gilmore Commission: National Strategy for Domestic Preparedness and CBRN Terrorism Response	404
	Gilmore Commissions: Standardization of Legal Terms	407
	Gilmore Commission: National Standards for Equipment	407
	Bremer Commission: Treatment of Former and Future States of Concern	409
	Bremer Commission: Targeting Terrorist Financial Resources	410
	Bremer Commission: Liability Insurance	411
	Bremer Commission: Realistic Exercises	411
Chapter 11	Conclusions and Recommendations	415
	Correcting the Strategic Gaps in the U.S. Approach to Homeland Defense	416
	Focusing Less on Who's in Charge and More on What They Should Be in Charge of	417
	Planning for Higher-Probability, Lower-Consequence, and Lower-Probability, Higher-Consequence Events	418
	Planning for Terrorism and Asymmetric Warfare	421
	Reacting to the Uncertain Nature of the Threat	424
	The Lack of "Transparency" in Federal Programs	426
	Effective Action Must Be Broad-Based and Suboptimize Efficiently	428
	Focusing on Priorities, Programs, and Trade-offs: Creating Effective Planning, Programming, and Budgeting	430
	Managing Research and Development, Rather Than Treating Asymmetric Attacks, Terrorism, and the CBRN Threat As an Excuse for a "Wish List" and "Slush Fund"	434
	Looking Beyond CBRN Threats: Dealing with All Medical Risks and Costs, the Need for a Comprehensive Public Information Capability, and the Linkage to Improved Strategic Deterrence and Response Capabilities	435
	Homeland Defense and/or Law Enforcement	438
	The Role of the Intelligence Community and the Need for Improved Intelligence	439
	The Challenge of Operations	442
	Rule of Law, Human Rights, Asymmetric Warfare, High Levels of Attack, and "New Paradigms"	443
	The Need for Central Coordination and Management of the Federal Effort	444
	Broader Solutions and New Approaches to National Strategy: Reacting to Asymmetric Warfare	446